11.06.12 UBP MA VITA MEG



Posted from Surfer & Mr.Banker’s thread in Financemanila

“From foreign broker PEP:  “Note that of the listed banks, UBP offers the best
yield. We’re looking at 2013E DPS of Php3.5/sh, yield of 2.8% per last
closing (Php107/sh).

We have a Buy rating and PO of Php132.5/sh.”


You can check PSE website on AEV’s recent disclosures on their accumulation of UBP shares.


Weekly chart of UBP.. It would be better if it would close on a long green candle come Friday. MACD buy signal.



Bullish Inverse Head and shoulder pattern?



As they say “Buy on rumor,sell on news”. It still a puzzle as to who is this white knight that would save VITA.

Chart shows it may go on either side. Caveat.


MEG – new 52-week high… see chart here


10.23.12 BreakDOWn on DJIA(Dow)

As I’ve said on my previous post “Please be reminded that some traders will take some profits due to the upcoming holidays like Hajj on 26th and All Saints day on Nov1. I hope that earnings expectations will not disappoint. Or else, this will be another reason of selling pressure this week.”


Few minutes ago, the DOW closed 243 points down, worst loss since June. Nasdaq also went down below 3000.

Breakdown on DOW – daily chart


Bearish Divergence – Weekly Chart


Please be reminded that some traders will take some profits due to the upcoming holidays like Hajj on 26th and All Saints day on Nov1.
I hope that earnings expectations will not disappoint. Or else, this will be another reason of selling pressure this week.



A breakout from its apex with green candle supported by good volume will make the RSI go above 50 and MACD will give a buy signal.



On Monday, we should see a follow thru to confirm the reversal of the trend or breakout from consolidation.




Foreigners are pocketing some gains?





What do foreigners know that we don’t? Why they are still buying giving even at higher price? 🙂
On candlestick pattern, I must admit that I don’t know what is this called, but for me it’s a combination of shooting star and bearish harami. Both pattern signifies a bearish reversal pattern. Please be careful because immediate support is still at .10 lol



10.17.12 BLOOM MEG

Charts of mining stocks like LC, MA, LIHC and Mining index are everywhere. They are made by our friend bloggers and posted in different forums(like this) and social networking sites. I think I don’t need to post the charts here.


Let me extract what happened to BLOOM today. It seems that traders who bought below 10 are now locking profits. Even if they sell at 13, they still have more than 30% of gains. Top sellers UBS and CLSA dumped a net of 5.26M shares and 5.8M shares, respectively. Top buyer for today was COL. However, they are still net sell. 2nd Top buyer, wealthsec, is also a net seller.

See below the large volume selldown on 1 minute chart.


MEG made a new 52 week high after retesting the resistance-turned-support of 2.33. As per valuation of BPI last 2 days, MEGs price is still undervalued if we compare it against other property stocks.

Looking on a weekly basis, it might retest the 3-year high of 2.80. Caveat: this is not a fast stock. Patient traders will be rewarded.


Other stocks that made new 52 week high

10.16.12 Speculation on 3Q2012 Result of PCOR


1ST HALF 2012 vs 1ST HALF 2011 

Petron Corporation (Petron) posted a consolidated net income of P 432 million for the first six months of 2012. This is significantly lower than the P 6.04 billion earnings reported during the same period last year due to the 2nd quarter losses registered by its Philippine operations (P 500 million) and the consolidation of Malaysian operations in the 2nd quarter (P1.6 billion loss).

While consolidated revenues grew by 43%, margins contracted by 35% as higher-cost inventory were sold at lower prices. The continuous drop in crude and finished product prices in the world market during the second quarter prompted the company to implement consecutive rollbacks in local pump prices. – source: PCORs 2nd Quarter Report

Dubai price

After surging to a peak of $124/bbl in March due to the tensions in oil producing regions Middle East and North Africa and the oil embargo against Iran, Dubai dropped to below $100/bbl during the second quarter of the year bringing first half average at $111.3/bbl. The slump in prices during the second quarter was caused by bleak economic prospects with deepening crisis in the Eurozone, weak economic growth in the US and Asian giants China and India, and lower oil demand growth outlook in 2012. – source: PCORs 2nd Quarter Report



Caveat: I’m not sure if they are using BRENT prices but upon reading the comments from their disclosure, we can assume that the price they are using are almost similar to BRENT.


Factors to consider on 3Q Performance

  • Rebound of oil prices on 3Q 2012. (see chart above)
  • Higher Sales volume contributed by supply agreement between Petron Malaysia and Malaysia Airlines starting July 1, 2012.
  • Maybank in KL knows that PCOR Malaysia already turned the corner in 3Q. Hence, the ATR connection. – comment by Camp_big_falcon of FM see their discussion below

**Preview muna..hintayin ko na official 3Q result before posting the PCORs FA 🙂


link: http://www.financemanila.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1161&hilit=pcor&start=1755#p540037

by Bizdak » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:05 pm
What are your thoughts about PCOR? Looks like ATR is hell bent on breaking out this one. I averaged up on this today.


by Mr. Banker » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:52 pm
Provided overall marketing sentiment remains favorable, I too am looking forward that PCOR will quickly resume its climb. I am researching though when PCOR will be disclosing its 3rd quarter results. A strong sign of recovery in their Malaysian operations should additionally give the stock fundamental pricing support.

by doycarlo » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:18 pm
I think PCOR’s Malaysian operations will take time to recover. They need to upgrade fast their Port Dickson refinery so that they could compete effectively with the other big players like Petronas and Shell. Or if I’m not mistaken, some excess products from their Bataan refinery (after completion of BRP2) will go there. I’m hoping that Petron will be successful in Malaysia because it will make us proud having a Philippine company in Malaysia.


by camp_big_falcon » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:28 pm
Maybank in KL knows that Pcor Malaysia already turned the corner in 3Q. Hence, the atr connection.


by doycarlo » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:34 pm
That’s good news then. Thanks! 

by Bizdak » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:27 pm
Exactly what im speculating


by Mr. Banker » Thu Oct 11, 2012 12:53 am
Great news for PCOR followers, friend CBF. How I wish we too can take a peek on how big is the improvement so we can gauge how big a bet we should make…


I remember one trader tweeting something like “BUY until PH is not
investment grade.” Technically, index will bounce from its
resistance-turned-support or from its channel. However, we can’t still
ignore the fact that there is  a potential bearish rising wedge that’s
forming on PSEI.



After breaking the 2.33 resistance, it is now retesting the resistance-turned-support before (hopefully) bouncing up.






Management is confident that BACMAN will be ready for commercial operation on early 2013.





Wealthsec’s Fundamental TP = 24.80


PCOR – Petron’s Weekly Chart

Notice that volume has been picking up for the past 2 weeks. It’s also speculated that there’s a turnaround of results in Malaysian operations after incurring loss of Php1.6B in 2Q2012.  This week I will try to post the FA of PCOR.



Supports for:

MBT – 90
TEL – 2670-2700
AC – 420-425

9.30.12 Foreign Buying/Selling for the month of September

Para po sa mga nagtatanong kung bakit bihira ko na lang i-update ang blog ko…
Ako po ay galing sa mahigit 1 buwang bakasyon sa Pilipinas at ngayon ay busy naman sa annual budgeting sa trabaho.
Pero sinisikap ko pa rin mag update kahit pano 🙂



Since my FMSEC’s chart is not working, ito muna ang mase-share ko

Casino Stocks’ Week 1-4 of September Net Foreign Buying(Selling)


AGI’s rise to its current level was heavily supported by Php 3-Billion net foreign buying(NFB), actually the biggest NFB of all stocks listed, from week1 to week4 of September.

Vertical bars are NFB/NFS, not volume.

Bloom, on the other hand, gradually shifted from net foreign selling(NFS) to NFB on 4th week of September. Notice that most of the foreign buying came from Sept 25-27, which touched the high of 11.70. Profit taking on Sept 28,which created a doji candle, was only supported by low volume.


Despite the rise of the casino stocks, mining stocks, esp. the trio PX-LCB-MAB suffered from net foreign selling.


Here are some stocks that have notable foreign activities.


TOP 20 stocks that have highest Net Foreign Buying


TOP 20 stocks that have biggest Net Foreign Selling


You can see other stocks’ NFB/NFS for the month of September by downloading the excel file below.

Please click this LINK.