10.16.12 Speculation on 3Q2012 Result of PCOR


1ST HALF 2012 vs 1ST HALF 2011 

Petron Corporation (Petron) posted a consolidated net income of P 432 million for the first six months of 2012. This is significantly lower than the P 6.04 billion earnings reported during the same period last year due to the 2nd quarter losses registered by its Philippine operations (P 500 million) and the consolidation of Malaysian operations in the 2nd quarter (P1.6 billion loss).

While consolidated revenues grew by 43%, margins contracted by 35% as higher-cost inventory were sold at lower prices. The continuous drop in crude and finished product prices in the world market during the second quarter prompted the company to implement consecutive rollbacks in local pump prices. – source: PCORs 2nd Quarter Report

Dubai price

After surging to a peak of $124/bbl in March due to the tensions in oil producing regions Middle East and North Africa and the oil embargo against Iran, Dubai dropped to below $100/bbl during the second quarter of the year bringing first half average at $111.3/bbl. The slump in prices during the second quarter was caused by bleak economic prospects with deepening crisis in the Eurozone, weak economic growth in the US and Asian giants China and India, and lower oil demand growth outlook in 2012. – source: PCORs 2nd Quarter Report



Caveat: I’m not sure if they are using BRENT prices but upon reading the comments from their disclosure, we can assume that the price they are using are almost similar to BRENT.


Factors to consider on 3Q Performance

  • Rebound of oil prices on 3Q 2012. (see chart above)
  • Higher Sales volume contributed by supply agreement between Petron Malaysia and Malaysia Airlines starting July 1, 2012.
  • Maybank in KL knows that PCOR Malaysia already turned the corner in 3Q. Hence, the ATR connection. – comment by Camp_big_falcon of FM see their discussion below

**Preview muna..hintayin ko na official 3Q result before posting the PCORs FA 🙂


link: http://www.financemanila.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1161&hilit=pcor&start=1755#p540037

by Bizdak » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:05 pm
What are your thoughts about PCOR? Looks like ATR is hell bent on breaking out this one. I averaged up on this today.


by Mr. Banker » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:52 pm
Provided overall marketing sentiment remains favorable, I too am looking forward that PCOR will quickly resume its climb. I am researching though when PCOR will be disclosing its 3rd quarter results. A strong sign of recovery in their Malaysian operations should additionally give the stock fundamental pricing support.

by doycarlo » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:18 pm
I think PCOR’s Malaysian operations will take time to recover. They need to upgrade fast their Port Dickson refinery so that they could compete effectively with the other big players like Petronas and Shell. Or if I’m not mistaken, some excess products from their Bataan refinery (after completion of BRP2) will go there. I’m hoping that Petron will be successful in Malaysia because it will make us proud having a Philippine company in Malaysia.


by camp_big_falcon » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:28 pm
Maybank in KL knows that Pcor Malaysia already turned the corner in 3Q. Hence, the atr connection.


by doycarlo » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:34 pm
That’s good news then. Thanks! 

by Bizdak » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:27 pm
Exactly what im speculating


by Mr. Banker » Thu Oct 11, 2012 12:53 am
Great news for PCOR followers, friend CBF. How I wish we too can take a peek on how big is the improvement so we can gauge how big a bet we should make…


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